Full record
MissenergyOil prices will not rise significantly over the next ~12 months.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“so because oil is is going to likely you know it doesn't seem like it's going to be heading up anytime soon”
Oil prices will not rise significantly over the next ~12 months.
- Made on
- 2020-03-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-03-19
Crude oil price does not rise materially (stays well below normal pre-crash levels) within ~12 months.
Criterion is that crude does NOT rise materially within ~12 months. Primary EIA/FRED data show WTI recovered from the low-$20s (and a negative print in Apr 2020) to ~$60+/bbl by Mar 2021 — a full recovery to/above pre-crash levels. The written criterion is contradicted by the evidence. (No outcome value assigned; scoring is a later stage.)
Sources
Tesla: Logarithmic regression model
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
WTI crude was ~$20-25/bbl on the claim date (2020-03-20) and briefly went NEGATIVE (-$37) on 2020-04-20 during the crash. By the ~12-month deadline it had fully recovered: WTI closed ~$61/bbl on 2021-03-19 (last trading day before the 2021-03-20 Saturday deadline), i.e. AT or ABOVE normal pre-crash levels.
EIA Cushing WTI monthly average spot price: Jan 2020 ~$57.52 and Feb 2020 ~$50.54 (pre-crash 'normal'); the Mar 2021 monthly average was ~$62/bbl — above the pre-crash baseline, confirming oil rose materially rather than staying well below pre-crash levels.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Oil prices will not rise significantly over the next ~12 mo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-03-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources