Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin will not reach $20,000 until late 2021 at the earliest.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I wouldn't even think Bitcoin we would reach $20,000 until later in 2021 you know at the very least”
Bitcoin will not reach $20,000 until late 2021 at the earliest.
- Made on
- 2020-03-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-16
Bitcoin does not trade at $20,000 before Q4 2021; confirmed if BTC first reaches $20k in late 2021 or later, falsified if it reaches $20k before late 2021.
Criterion: falsified if BTC reaches $20k before late 2021 (Q4 2021). BTC first traded above $20k on 2020-12-16, roughly a year before the predicted earliest date. resolved_on set to the date the $20k level was first reached.
Sources
Bitcoin: Falling below the 20 week MA
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin broke above $20,000 for the first time this cycle on December 16, 2020 — roughly 9 months after the 2020-03-09 prediction and about a year before the 'late 2021 at the earliest' threshold.
Cointelegraph corroborates BTC first traded above $20,000 on Dec 16, 2020, confirming the $20k level was reached well before Q4 2021.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: 'maybe even 2022' is not part of this claim; the '2022 or 2023' phrase in the transcript refers to the cycle PEAK, not to reaching $20k. Basis should quote the actual reach-$20k words.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will not reach $20,000 until late 2021 at the earli…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-03-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources