Full record
25% rightcryptoThe total cryptocurrency market cap reaches approximately $10 trillion (target $10T ±$2T).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightcrypto“my target is around you know 10 trillion dollars or so plus or minus a couple trillion”
The total cryptocurrency market cap reaches approximately $10 trillion (target $10T ±$2T).
- Made on
- 2020-02-20
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-02-20
Total crypto market capitalization reaches at least ~$8 trillion (the $10T ±$2T lower bound) at any point within the window.
Criterion required total crypto cap to reach at least ~$8T ($10T ±$2T lower bound) at any point in the window. The all-time peak across the entire window (and to date) was ~$3T in Nov 2021, never approaching $8T. Resolution is determinable at window close; resolved_on set to deadline.
Sources
Total Cryptocurrency Marketcap Logarithmic Regression Band
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Total cryptocurrency market cap hit its all-time high of $3 trillion on November 9, 2021 — the single highest level ever reached before or during the window (2020-02-20 to 2023-02-20). This is well below the criterion's ~$8T lower bound.
CoinDesk: crypto total market cap set a then-record $2.7T on 2021-10-21, corroborating that the market's peak in this window was in the ~$3T range, roughly one-third of the ~$8T lower bound.
Corrections
- tags: Total cryptocurrency market-cap level target → crypto primary, markets secondary.
Effect on the score
+0.84- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The total cryptocurrency market cap reaches approximately $…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-02-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources