Prediction record
MisscryptoIf Bitcoin drops to its 200-week moving average, it then trades for several months between roughly $5,000 and $6,000
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“We're going to have to spend some time, I would say, between the 150 and 200 week moving averages, which would mean spending a significant amount of time between, say, five and six thousand dollars, several months I would say, between those two figures.”
If Bitcoin drops to its 200-week moving average, it then trades for several months between roughly $5,000 and $6,000
- Made on
- 2020-01-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-12-31
Given Bitcoin touches its 200-week MA, it then trades predominantly in the ~$5,000–$6,000 band for several consecutive months.
Conditional prediction. The 'if BTC touches its 200-week MA' antecedent was met in March 2020. The consequent ('then trades predominantly ~$5,000–$6,000 for several consecutive months') was not met: BTC spent only a brief post-crash window in that band before rising steadily to a ~$29k year-end. Exact 200-week MA value in March 2020 (~$5.3–5.5k) is from technical-analysis charts rather than an official agency, but the direction — BTC crashing below its 200W MA and then NOT consolidating in $5–6k — is well documented.
Sources
Bitcoin: A dance with moving averages
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Antecedent triggered: in the March 2020 crash BTC fell to ~$3,720–$3,860, dipping to/below its 200-week moving average (then roughly $5,300–$5,500). The 200-week MA heatmap flagged March 2020 as a deep 'accumulation' (below-MA) event.
Consequent failed: after the crash BTC recovered rapidly rather than consolidating for months in the $5–6k band. It reclaimed ~$6.9k by late April 2020, ~$9–10k by May, ~$10–13k through autumn, and closed 2020 near $29,000. The $5–6k zone was occupied only for a few weeks around late March/April, not 'several consecutive months.'
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (BTC drops to its 200-week MA) objectively occurred in the March 2020 crash (~$3,850, below ~$5,300 200W MA); the resolution block already relies on this, so condition_met must be true.
- tags: Bitcoin price-band claim; dictionary requires 'crypto' primary with 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin drops to its 200-week moving average, it then tr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-01-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources