Full record
MisscryptoAfter a March 2026 peak in market expectations for the RMP, Bitcoin will decline to a local bottom that remains well above $124,000
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“March will mark peak expectations for the power of the RMP to ramp asset prices, and Bitcoin will decline and form a local bottom well above $124,000”
After a March 2026 peak in market expectations for the RMP, Bitcoin will decline to a local bottom that remains well above $124,000
- Made on
- 2025-12-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-06-30
Following a market-expectation peak around March 2026, Bitcoin's next local low remains above $124,000.
Criterion: following a market-expectation peak around March 2026 (for the 'RMP'), Bitcoin's next local low remains above $124,000. Determinable and clearly not met: across the entire Jan–Jun 2026 window BTC traded in roughly the $60k–$98k range, peaked in price terms near ~$70k–$73k in March 2026, and put in local lows around ~$60,000 (February and again late June 2026) — all far below $124,000. BTC did not trade above $124k at any point in the window (its only prints above that level were the Oct 2025 ATH, before the statement). Marked resolved (outcome not assigned per instructions); resolved_on = criterion window close 2026-06-30, by which the local-low-above-$124k condition was fully determinable as unmet.
Sources
Love Language
Medium ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin entered 2026 near $87k, made a January 2026 high of ~$97,860 and a February 2026 low of ~$60,074 — well below the $124,000 threshold. It never reached $124k in H1 2026.
On 2026-03-23 Bitcoin traded ~$70,600 (up 4.64% over the prior month from ~$67,467), and ~$71,300 on 2026-03-25 — i.e. the March 2026 area was in the ~$65k–$73k range, roughly half of $124,000.
By May–June 2026 Bitcoin declined further, from ~$83,800 in early May to ~$59,970–$60,130 by 2026-06-29; its all-time high of ~$126,073 was set back on 2025-10-06, not revisited in H1 2026.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
After a March 2026 peak in market expectations for the RMP,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources