Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin will chop between $80,000 and $100,000 until the start of 2026
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“the current misguided belief that RMP < QE in terms of credit creation, and the uncertainty of RMP's existence post-April 2026, will cause Bitcoin to chop between $80,000 and $100,000 until the new year begins.”
Bitcoin will chop between $80,000 and $100,000 until the start of 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-01-01
Bitcoin trades within an $80,000-$100,000 range from the statement date until 2026-01-01.
Criterion: BTC trades within $80,000–$100,000 from statement date 2025-12-19 to 2026-01-01. Reported daily prices across that short window sit in the $80,000s (roughly $86k–$90k), never exceeding $100k and with no reported dip below $80,000 (lowest cited ~$86,684 on 2025-12-24). One 2025-12-25 analysis argued BTC 'might have to spend time below $80,000 to build support' — that is forward-looking and did not describe a breach within the window. Verification is based on reported daily/intraday levels, not tick-by-tick exchange data; an unreported intraday spike/dip outside the band cannot be fully excluded, but available evidence indicates the range held. resolved_on = window close 2026-01-01.
Sources
Love Language
Medium ·
Evidence of what happened
Through late December 2025 Bitcoin oscillated in the low-to-high $80,000s; on 2025-12-24 it traded ~$86,700–$87,200 with an intraday high near $88,200 and low near $86,684 — inside the $80k–$100k band.
Bitcoin closed out 2025 near $87,000 ('limps into new year at $87,000, down ~30% from ATH'), ending the year in a narrow range — below $100k and above $80k across the statement-to-year-end window.
December 2025 price commentary: BTC capped below ~$90k, repeatedly failing to reclaim $90k, trading in a compressed range in the $80,000s — no sustained move above $100k.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will chop between $80,000 and $100,000 until the st…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources