Full record
MisscryptoEthena (USDe) will become the second-largest stablecoin by market cap, behind only Tether and ahead of Circle, by March 17, 2026
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“Ethena's growth is so strong that by St. Patty's Day next year, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire will drown his sorrows with a pint of Guinness as Ethena because the second largest stablecoin issuer behind Tether”
Ethena (USDe) will become the second-largest stablecoin by market cap, behind only Tether and ahead of Circle, by March 17, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-03-17
By 2026-03-17, Ethena's stablecoin is the second-largest by market cap, behind only Tether and ahead of Circle/USDC
Criterion: by 2026-03-17 USDe is the second-largest stablecoin, behind only Tether and ahead of Circle/USDC. On/around the deadline USDe (~$5.9B) ranked third behind USDT and USDC, never overtaking USDC (~$70B+). Criterion not met. Deadline has passed; fully resolvable from stablecoin market-cap data. Outcome value left to scoring stage.
Sources
Assume The Position
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
As of ~March 16, 2026 (day before the deadline), USDe's circulating supply was ~$5.92 billion, making it the THIRD-largest stablecoin — behind both USDT and USDC — following a sharp contraction from a Q4 2025 peak of ~$14 billion. It was not second-largest and was not ahead of Circle/USDC.
USDC (Circle) held roughly $70–75 billion through this period versus USDe's single-digit billions — an order-of-magnitude gap; no stablecoin other than USDT and USDC exceeded ~$10B, so USDe could not have overtaken USDC.
Confirming current standing: by July 2026 USDe was ~$4.4B (rank ~#21 overall) while USDC was ~$73B — USDC ~16x larger than USDe, consistent with USDe remaining well behind Circle around the March deadline.
Corrections
- Date: Quote is from the 'Buffalo Bill' post (2025-08-26), not 'Assume The Position' (2025-06-16).
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Ethena (USDe) will become the second-largest stablecoin by…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources