Full record
HitcryptoEthereum reaches $4,000 to $5,000 during 2025.
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“I think ETH could go to $4,000 or $5,000 this year. I think it's the most hated layer-1, and usually you want to be in the most hated asset in a turn of the cycle, so I think ETH could outperform.”
Ethereum reaches $4,000 to $5,000 during 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-05-29
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-24
Ethereum's USD price reaches the $4,000-$5,000 zone (>= $4,000) at any point during 2025.
Criterion: ETH reaches the $4,000-$5,000 zone (>= $4,000) at any point during 2025. Met — ETH reached ~$4,946-$4,956 on 2025-08-24/25, squarely within/at the top of the $4,000-$5,000 zone (and >= $4,000). Resolved (prediction came true). resolved_on set to the ATH date 2025-08-24 when the zone was decisively reached (the >=$4,000 level was first crossed slightly earlier in the rally). No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
'Most-Hated L1': Arthur Hayes Thinks Ethereum Could Double in Price This Year
Decrypt ·
Evidence of what happened
Ethereum entered and exceeded the $4,000 level during 2025: it hit a 2025 (and all-time) high of approximately $4,946-$4,956 on 2025-08-24/25. Prior to the ATH it also traded through the $4,000-$5,000 zone (e.g., exceeding $4,500 by late September). The >= $4,000 threshold and the $4,000-$5,000 zone were clearly reached.
Corroboration that ETH's 2025 range spanned roughly $1,786 to $4,955, confirming it traded within and above the $4,000-$5,000 band during 2025 (peak ~$4,955 in August).
Corrections
- horizon type: 'this year' maps to Dec 31 via the deadline-inference table, so the deadline is inferred, not an explicitly stated date.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Ethereum reaches $4,000 to $5,000 during 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-05-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources