Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market will undergo a severe correction driven by recession fears
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Bitcoin is screaming that a liquidity crisis is nigh, even though the US stock market indices are still near their all-time highs. I believe the Bitcoin signal, and as such, a severe US stock market correction is on the horizon, driven by recession fears.”
The US stock market will undergo a severe correction driven by recession fears
- Made on
- 2025-03-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-08
The S&P 500 undergoes a severe correction (≥10–20% decline) amid recession fears within ~12 months
Criterion: S&P 500 severe correction (≥10–20% decline) amid recession fears within ~12 months of 2025-03-03. The April 2025 tariff-driven sell-off delivered a ~17.6% peak-to-trough correction explicitly tied to recession fears, comfortably within the window (deadline 2026-03-03). Criterion met. Outcome value left to scoring stage.
Sources
KISS of Death
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
In April 2025 the S&P 500 fell ~17.6% below its February 2025 peak — a severe correction well past the ≥10% threshold and near the 20% bear-market line (it briefly touched bear-market territory intraday on April 7, 2025).
The decline was explicitly driven by tariff-induced instability and rising recession fears; the S&P lost ~9% in the week of April 4 (worst since March 2020), the drop being one of the largest two-day declines since 1950.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will undergo a severe correction driven…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources