Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin reaches $110,000 before it retests $76,500.
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
TweetDirect quote, reputable outletcryptomarkets
Scored record
Misscrypto“I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k.”
Bitcoin reaches $110,000 before it retests $76,500.
- Made on
- 2025-03-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-04-07
Hit iff Bitcoin's spot price touches $110,000 strictly before it next touches $76,500, counting from 2025-03-23.
Sources
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: sources[] hold only secondary outlets (Yahoo/Benzinga, Protos, U.Today) carrying the direct quote; no primary X URL was fetched, so fetched_primary is unsupported.
- Quote wording: Verbatim must be the pundit's own words; the record expanded '$BTC'->'BTC', '$110k'->'$110,000', '$76.5k'->'$76,500'. Restore the tweet's wording as carried by the outlets.
- Resolution: Wager objectively settled by Apr/May 2025: BTC retested $76,500 before reaching $110,000 → resolves FALSE per Protos and price history; should not remain pending.
- resolution resolved on: Date BTC retested $76,500 (~$74.5k), settling the sequencing wager as a miss before $110,000 was reached.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin reaches $110,000 before it retests $76,500.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources