Full record
MisscryptoThe crypto market peaks in mid-to-late March 2025 before a severe correction.
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“"Sasa" is an essay where I explain y I think #crypto tops out in mid-Mar and then severely corrects. Until then is time to dance.”
The crypto market peaks in mid-to-late March 2025 before a severe correction.
- Made on
- 2025-01-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-31
Aggregate crypto market cap (or BTC as proxy) records its local cycle high within ~2025-03-10 to 2025-03-31, with no materially higher print before that window.
Criterion (aggregate crypto market cap / BTC proxy records its LOCAL CYCLE HIGH within ~2025-03-10 to 2025-03-31, with NO materially higher print BEFORE that window) is NOT met. BTC's cycle high was set on 2025-01-20 (~$109,350), a materially higher print well before the March window; the market then fell sharply through February (worst February in 11 years) and remained in a downtrend into March/April 2025. March 2025 was a lower high, not a local cycle peak, and it was NOT followed by 'the' severe correction (the correction was already underway from January). Resolved false on the evidence. resolved_on set to the window end (2025-03-31).
Sources
Arthur Hayes on X: 'Sasa is an essay where I explain y I think #crypto tops out in mid-Mar'
X (Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes) ·
Sasa
Crypto Trader Digest (Substack) ·
Arthur Hayes: Crypto Market Will Peak 'In Mid to Late March'
Decrypt ·
We calculated the accuracy of 20 market calls by Arthur Hayes
Protos ·
Evidence of what happened
CNBC: Bitcoin touched a new all-time high of ~$109,350 early Monday, January 20, 2025 (Trump inauguration day), then reversed — a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event. This January print is the cycle high for Q1 2025.
CNBC: By Feb 25, 2025 BTC dropped to a 3-month low below $90,000 in a risk-off move; February 2025 was the worst February for BTC in over a decade, with BTC down ~30% from the January high and closing February around $84,000, continuing lower into March/April (≈31.7% decline Jan-April 2025).
Cointelegraph: commentary noting the 'confusing' status of the March 2025 print — Bitcoin's actual all-time highs were the January 2025 level and later the October 2025 (~$126k) peak, not March 2025; March 2025 was a lower high within a downtrend.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The crypto market peaks in mid-to-late March 2025 before a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-01-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources