Prediction record
25% outcomemarketsAfter dipping to $70,000–$75,000, Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomemarkets“I think we are more likely to go down to $70,000 to $75,000 Bitcoin and then rise to $250k by the end of the year than to continue girding higher with no material pullback.”
After dipping to $70,000–$75,000, Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025
- Made on
- 2025-01-27
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin trades at or above $250,000 at some point by 2025-12-31 (after a pullback toward $70k–$75k)
Criterion: BTC trades at/above $250,000 at some point by 2025-12-31 after a pullback toward $70k–$75k. The 2025 peak (~$126k, Oct 2025) fell far short of $250k, so the price target was not met regardless of the pullback precondition. Deadline has passed; fully resolvable from exchange/price history. Outcome value left to scoring stage.
Sources
The Ugly
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's 2025 all-time high was approximately $126,198, reached in October 2025 — roughly half the $250,000 target. It never traded at or above $250,000 at any point in 2025.
2025 market recap: BTC repeatedly hit new highs in 2025 but peaked around the $122k–$126k range mid-to-late year, then pulled back toward the $80k area — nowhere near $250k.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.72- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
After dipping to $70,000–$75,000, Bitcoin will reach $250,0…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-01-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources