Prediction record
MisseconomyTrump's tariffs will drive an immediate re-shoring of US productive capacity and a near-term rise in hiring
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“It will lead to an immediate re-shoring of productive capacity, leading to an increase in hiring today and not five years from now.”
Trump's tariffs will drive an immediate re-shoring of US productive capacity and a near-term rise in hiring
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-03-17
Trump tariffs produce a near-term (within ~3 months) increase in US re-shoring and manufacturing hiring
Criterion required a near-term (~3-month) increase in US re-shoring AND manufacturing hiring by the 2025-03-17 deadline. Announced reshoring investment intentions rose, but actual manufacturing employment was flat-to-down through Q1 2025 and continued declining through 2025. No 'immediate' rise in productive capacity or manufacturing hiring is observable in primary BLS payroll data. Resolvable with official employment data; outcome-value assignment left to scoring stage.
Sources
Trump Truth
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
BLS Employment Situation data for the Dec 2024–Mar 2025 window shows manufacturing employment essentially flat, not a near-term surge. Jan 2025 total nonfarm was later revised to +160k but manufacturing showed little net change; Feb 2025 was weak (revised to -133k total) and manufacturing employment showed little change over the month. No 'immediate' re-shoring hiring increase materialized within the ~3-month horizon.
Retrospective analysis one year after the tariffs found US manufacturing employment fell ~1% since the April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariffs, with 2025 ending on an eight-month slide and ~68,000 factory jobs lost over the year — i.e., factory jobs fell rather than rose in the tariff era, contradicting the near-term reshoring-hiring thesis.
Reporting on the period ('With factory jobs falling, are tariffs working to reshore manufacturing?') confirms manufacturing payrolls declined rather than rising in the months following the tariff rollout.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Trump's tariffs will drive an immediate re-shoring of US pr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources