Prediction record
HiteconomyUS money printing (liquidity expansion) will continue and accelerate after Trump takes office on January 20, 2025
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“money printing will continue and accelerate after Trump's 20 January 2025 coronation.”
US money printing (liquidity expansion) will continue and accelerate after Trump takes office on January 20, 2025
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
US liquidity/money-supply expansion continues and accelerates in the months following Jan 20, 2025
Criterion (liquidity/money-supply expansion continues and accelerates in the months after Jan 20, 2025) is met: M2 growth reaccelerated to multi-year highs through 2025. Note: sources describe the trend, not causation from the Trump administration specifically; the criterion is about the observable acceleration, which occurred. No outcome assigned.
Sources
Trump Truth
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
US M2 (FRED M2SL) expansion continued and accelerated after Jan 20, 2025: by June 2025 M2 reached a record ~$22.02T, up ~4.5% YoY — the fastest pace since July 2022 and a clear shift from the 2022-23 contraction back to expansion.
Full-year 2025: M2 rose by more than $1.65T to a record high, the largest annual increase since 2021, with demand deposits +8.9% and money-market fund assets at records — corroborating accelerating liquidity expansion through 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US money printing (liquidity expansion) will continue and a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources