Full record
HiteconomyUS money printing (liquidity expansion) will continue and accelerate after Trump takes office on January 20, 2025
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“money printing will continue and accelerate after Trump's 20 January 2025 coronation.”
US money printing (liquidity expansion) will continue and accelerate after Trump takes office on January 20, 2025
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
US liquidity/money-supply expansion continues and accelerates in the months following Jan 20, 2025
Criterion (liquidity/money-supply expansion continues and accelerates in the months after Jan 20, 2025) is met: M2 growth reaccelerated to multi-year highs through 2025. Note: sources describe the trend, not causation from the Trump administration specifically; the criterion is about the observable acceleration, which occurred. No outcome assigned.
Sources
Trump Truth
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
US M2 (FRED M2SL) expansion continued and accelerated after Jan 20, 2025: by June 2025 M2 reached a record ~$22.02T, up ~4.5% YoY — the fastest pace since July 2022 and a clear shift from the 2022-23 contraction back to expansion.
Full-year 2025: M2 rose by more than $1.65T to a record high, the largest annual increase since 2021, with demand deposits +8.9% and money-market fund assets at records — corroborating accelerating liquidity expansion through 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US money printing (liquidity expansion) will continue and a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources