Full record
HitmarketsThe US dollar will be devalued against gold in the first half of 2025
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“my base case is a $/gold devaluation in the first half of 2025.”
The US dollar will be devalued against gold in the first half of 2025
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-06-30
The US dollar depreciates significantly against gold (USD gold price rises materially) during H1 2025
Directly on-criterion and clearly met. Gold set successive records through H1 2025; the ~26% H1 move is far beyond any 'material' threshold.
Sources
Trump Truth
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
USD gold price rose from $2,623.91/oz on Jan 1, 2025 to $3,307.21/oz on Jun 30, 2025 — a ~26.1% appreciation of gold vs. the dollar over H1 2025. This is a large, unambiguous depreciation of USD against gold during the first half of 2025, satisfying the 'rises materially' criterion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US dollar will be devalued against gold in the first ha…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources