Full record
MisseconomyYellen will announce or implement market-stabilization measures no later than the Asian-session open on Monday, August 12, 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“Yellen will swing into action no later than the opening of Asian trading next Monday, August 12th”
Yellen will announce or implement market-stabilization measures no later than the Asian-session open on Monday, August 12, 2024
- Made on
- 2024-08-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-08-12
The US Treasury (Yellen) announces or implements market-stabilizing measures by the open of Asian trading on 2024-08-12.
Criterion is specific to a US Treasury / Yellen announcement or implementation of market-stabilizing measures by the Aug-12 Asian open. No such announcement or measure is on record in the window; the stabilization that did occur was driven by the BOJ and self-correcting markets and had already happened by Aug 9. Absence-of-event resolution — the window is closed and no primary source reports a qualifying Treasury action.
Sources
Spirited Away
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
The Aug 5 2024 turmoil (carry-trade unwind) stabilized on its own well before the Aug 12 Asian open: the S&P 500 had recovered all its week's losses by the close of Fri Aug 9, and the reversal is attributed to market mechanics and the BOJ (Deputy Governor Uchida's Aug 7 walk-back of further rate hikes), not to any US Treasury action. The BIS post-mortem describes the stabilization without reference to any Yellen/Treasury measure.
Contemporary market accounts of the episode credit the fast rebound to the BOJ's dovish reassurance and self-correcting positioning; there is no record of Secretary Yellen or the US Treasury announcing or implementing any market-stabilization measure between Aug 6 and the Aug 12 Asian open.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Yellen will announce or implement market-stabilization meas…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources