Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market will be higher going into the November 2024 presidential election, propped up by Democratic monetary policy
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the incumbent Democrats will use all monetary levers to ensure a rising stock market before the November election.”
The US stock market will be higher going into the November 2024 presidential election, propped up by Democratic monetary policy
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-11-05
S&P 500 is higher on ~2024-11-05 than on 2024-08-27
Criterion: S&P 500 higher on ~2024-11-05 than on 2024-08-27. Confirmed higher (5,782.76 vs 5,625.80). The claim's causal attribution ('propped up by Democratic monetary policy') is not independently verifiable and is not part of the price criterion. Outcome value deferred to scoring.
Sources
Sugar High
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will be higher going into the November…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources