Full record
50% rightmarketsThe crypto market will enter a strong Sino-American bull market in 2025
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
50% rightmarkets“China will finally unleash its long-awaited Bazooka fiscal stimulus. The 2025 Sino-American crypto bull market shall be glorious”
The crypto market will enter a strong Sino-American bull market in 2025
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
The crypto market experiences a strong bull market (broad, sustained price appreciation) during 2025.
Criterion requires a STRONG, BROAD, SUSTAINED bull market during 2025. Evidence is mixed but net-negative on the 'sustained' element: crypto appreciated to a fresh Oct ATH (~$126k) but the rally reversed sharply, with BTC ending the year near $87k (approximately flat-to-down on the full year) and sentiment in extreme fear. The mid-year appreciation is real and should be weighed against the full-year collapse; this is not a genuine authenticity/ambiguity case, so no needs_human_review flag. The claim also specified a 'Sino-American' (US-China-driven) character; the surfaced sources frame 2025's moves around Fed/macro and tariff/shutdown shocks rather than a China-led bull, but I resolve strictly to the verifier's written criterion (broad sustained appreciation). No outcome value (o) assigned — scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Water, Water, Every Where
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin set a new all-time high of ~$126,200 on Oct 6, 2025 (up from a ~$93k start-of-year level), representing genuine appreciation through the first three quarters of 2025.
The rally was not sustained: an Oct 10 flash crash liquidated ~$19B; Bitcoin fell below $80,000 and closed the year near $87,000 — roughly flat-to-down versus its ~$93k start-of-2025 level. CoinDesk characterized the year as a 'forward-loaded' bull run that 'then collapsed' and 'missed most forecasts in 2025.'
Year-end sentiment was 'extreme fear': the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 20/100 on Dec 26, 2025, with total crypto market cap near $2.26T and momentum fading through December.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The crypto market will enter a strong Sino-American bull ma…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources