Full record
HitcryptoCrypto will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory and begin recovering starting in September 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“I expect that crypto will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory starting in September”
Crypto will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory and begin recovering starting in September 2024
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Crypto (BTC and broad market) stops its sideways-to-downward trend and trends net higher beginning around September 2024.
Criterion (crypto stops its sideways-to-downward trend and trends net higher beginning around September 2024) is satisfied by the price record: a September low followed by a strong multi-month uptrend into year-end, with a new all-time high above $100k. Resolvable and well-documented.
Sources
Water, Water, Every Where
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
BTC bottomed in early September 2024 (~$53k) and then trended net higher for the rest of the period: rallied to ~$66k in September on the Fed's rate cut, ~$70k in October, surged past $75k after the Nov 5 election, first crossed $100,000 on Dec 5 2024, and closed the year around $93.4k — a clear, sustained uptrend beginning around September.
The broad crypto market recovered alongside BTC through Q4 2024, driven by the Fed rate cut and the post-election pro-crypto sentiment, confirming the trend was market-wide and not BTC-only.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto-market direction call takes 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Crypto will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory and be…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources