Full record
MisspoliticsThe US will raise (or suspend) its debt ceiling in January or February 2025
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Misspolitics“I expect that to happen sometime in January or February”
The US will raise (or suspend) its debt ceiling in January or February 2025
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-02-28
The US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended during January or February 2025.
The statutory debt ceiling was NOT raised or suspended during January or February 2025. It was reinstated on Jan 2 2025, Treasury resorted to extraordinary measures on Jan 21 2025, and the actual increase did not happen until July 4 2025. The predicted event did not occur in the specified window. Resolvable with primary/official sourcing.
Sources
Water, Water, Every Where
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
The debt ceiling was REINSTATED (not raised/suspended) on Jan 2 2025 at ~$36.1T when the Fiscal Responsibility Act's suspension expired. It remained binding through Jan and Feb 2025.
On Jan 21 2025 Treasury began deploying 'extraordinary measures' to avoid breaching the limit — an action taken precisely because the ceiling had NOT been raised or suspended.
The debt ceiling was not actually raised until the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted July 4 2025, which increased it by $5T to $41.1T — months after the Jan/Feb 2025 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US will raise (or suspend) its debt ceiling in January…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources