Full record
50% righteconomyThe BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next scheduled meetings after August 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
50% righteconomy“The BOE and ECB will likely continue cutting rates at their upcoming meetings.”
The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next scheduled meetings after August 2024
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-19
Both the BOE and ECB cut their policy rate at their next scheduled meetings after 2024-08-27
Criterion: BOTH the BOE and ECB cut at their next scheduled meetings after 2024-08-27. Only half true — ECB cut (Sep 12), but BOE held (Sep 19). The 'both cut' conjunction fails on the BOE leg. Outcome value deferred to scoring.
Sources
Sugar High
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.46- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources