Full record

50% righteconomy

The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next scheduled meetings after August 2024

A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .

BlogQuote from the original sourceeconomy

Scored prediction

50% righteconomy

The BOE and ECB will likely continue cutting rates at their upcoming meetings.

The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next scheduled meetings after August 2024

Made on
2024-08-27
Outcome
50% right
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.46

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2024-09-19

Both the BOE and ECB cut their policy rate at their next scheduled meetings after 2024-08-27

Criterion: BOTH the BOE and ECB cut at their next scheduled meetings after 2024-08-27. Only half true — ECB cut (Sep 12), but BOE held (Sep 19). The 'both cut' conjunction fails on the BOE leg. Outcome value deferred to scoring.

Sources

  • Sugar High

    Substack ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • ECB CUT its policy (deposit) rate by 25bps to 3.5% at its next scheduled meeting on 2024-09-12.

    Evidence

  • The Bank of England HELD Bank Rate at 5% at its next scheduled meeting on 2024-09-19 (8–1 vote to maintain; only Swati Dhingra favored a cut). It did NOT cut.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.46
How sure they sounded
80%
Outcome
50% right
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2024-08-27

How this profile was built

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