The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next scheduled meetings after August 2024

A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on 2024-08-27.

BlogPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

50% outcomeeconomy

“The BOE and ECB will likely continue cutting rates at their upcoming meetings.”

The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next scheduled meetings after August 2024

Made on: 2024-08-27
Outcome: 50% outcome
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.46

Criterion

Resolution status: resolved
Resolved on: 2024-09-19

Both the BOE and ECB cut their policy rate at their next scheduled meetings after 2024-08-27

Criterion: BOTH the BOE and ECB cut at their next scheduled meetings after 2024-08-27. Only half true — ECB cut (Sep 12), but BOE held (Sep 19). The 'both cut' conjunction fails on the BOE leg. Outcome value deferred to scoring.

Sources

Sugar High
Substack · 2024-08-27
Source

Outcome evidence

ECB CUT its policy (deposit) rate by 25bps to 3.5% at its next scheduled meeting on 2024-09-12.
Evidence
The Bank of England HELD Bank Rate at 5% at its next scheduled meeting on 2024-09-19 (8–1 vote to maintain; only Swati Dhingra favored a cut). It did NOT cut.
Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+2.46

Confidence: 80%
Outcome: 50% outcome
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.46

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The BOE and ECB will each cut interest rates at their next…

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: July 5, 2026
Made on: 2024-08-27

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-07-05
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-07-05
Independently verified against sources 2026-07-05

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