Full record
HiteconomyThere will be no US recession in 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“There ain't going to be a recession”
There will be no US recession in 2024
- Made on
- 2024-07-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
The US does not enter a recession (NBER-defined, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth) during calendar year 2024.
Both the NBER-defined and the two-consecutive-negative-quarters tests are unambiguously not met — the US did not enter a recession in calendar 2024. Criterion 'no US recession in 2024' satisfied.
Sources
Zoom Out
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
BEA: real GDP grew every quarter of 2024 — Q1 +1.6% (later revised), Q2 +3.0%, Q3 +3.1%, Q4 +2.4% — with full-year 2024 real GDP up ~2.8%. No two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declared no recession for 2024 (no peak dated); the last NBER-dated recession ended April 2020.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.77- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
There will be no US recession in 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources