Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Fed and BOJ will make no monetary policy changes at their June 2024 meetings
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I expect no changes to monetary policy from the Fed or the BOJ”
The Fed and BOJ will make no monetary policy changes at their June 2024 meetings
- Made on
- 2024-06-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-06-14
Neither the Fed nor the BOJ changes its policy rate/stance at its June 2024 meeting.
Both criteria met at the June meetings: Fed held, BOJ held its policy rate. Nuance to flag for the quantify stage: the BOJ's June decision announced an *intention* to taper JGB purchases (plan finalized July 31), which a strict reading of 'no change in stance' could weigh against; however the actual policy-rate/stance action at the June meeting was a hold. Not scored here.
Sources
Group of Fools
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
At its June 11–12, 2024 FOMC meeting the Fed unanimously held the federal funds target range at 5.25%–5.50% (7th consecutive hold). No policy-rate change.
At its June 13–14, 2024 meeting the BOJ kept the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0–0.1% (no rate change). It decided (8-1) to reduce JGB purchases 'thereafter' but deferred the detailed reduction plan to the next (July 31) meeting — so no rate/stance change was implemented at the June meeting itself.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Fed and BOJ will make no monetary policy changes at the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-06-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources