Full record
MisseconomyThe Bank of England will cut its policy rate at its June 2024 meeting, surprising a consensus expecting a hold
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I think we are in for a surprise to the downside”
The Bank of England will cut its policy rate at its June 2024 meeting, surprising a consensus expecting a hold
- Made on
- 2024-06-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-20
The Bank of England cuts its Bank Rate at its June 2024 MPC meeting.
The prediction (BOE cuts in June, surprising a consensus expecting a hold) is directly contradicted by the official decision: the BOE held. Criterion 'BOE cuts its Bank Rate at its June 2024 MPC meeting' was not satisfied.
Sources
Group of Fools
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
At the MPC meeting ending 19 June 2024 (announced 20 June), the Bank of England voted 7–2 to MAINTAIN Bank Rate at 5.25%. Two members preferred a 0.25pp cut. No cut occurred; the consensus 'hold' prevailed. The BOE's first cut came in August 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Bank of England will cut its policy rate at its June 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-06-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources