Prediction record
HitcryptoCrypto will bottom around early May 2024 and then begin a slow, gradual grind higher
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher.”
Crypto will bottom around early May 2024 and then begin a slow, gradual grind higher
- Made on
- 2024-05-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-05-02
Crypto (BTC) makes a local price bottom around early May 2024 and trends net higher over the subsequent months.
Criterion (local bottom around early May 2024, then net higher over subsequent months) is met on both legs: the ~$58.5k May 1 2024 low held as a local bottom, and BTC trended substantially higher over the following ~12 months. Note there was a lower intraday print (~$53.5k) in early July 2024, so the early-May low was a local — not the absolute — low of the year; the net-higher trend still holds. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Mayday
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
BTC made a local bottom right around the early-May 2024 call: it fell to $58,568 on May 1, 2024 (its lowest of the pullback), the day before the 2024-05-02 prediction, then recovered — rallying back above $60k and to a 60-day peak of $71,947 by May 21–22, 2024.
Over the subsequent months BTC trended net higher despite volatility (early-July 2024 dip to ~$53.5k and the Aug 5 2024 crash): it made new all-time highs above $100k (~$108k) in Dec 2024/Jan 2025 and was in the mid-$80k–low-$90k range by early May 2025 — far above the early-May 2024 bottom.
Corrections
- tags: Pure crypto price bet: dictionary requires crypto as primary tag with markets secondary.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Crypto will bottom around early May 2024 and then begin a s…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources