Full record
25% rightcryptoBitcoin rallies above $60,000 then trades range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000 until August 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightcrypto“A rally to above $60,000 and then range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.”
Bitcoin rallies above $60,000 then trades range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000 until August 2024
- Made on
- 2024-05-02
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-31
Bitcoin rallies above $60,000 and then trades within roughly $60,000–$70,000 through the end of July 2024.
Criterion has two parts. 'Rallies above $60,000' — met. 'Then trades within roughly $60,000–$70,000 through end of July' — NOT met: BTC broke the range on both sides, exceeding it to ~$71.9k in late May and falling to ~$53.5k in early July before recovering to ~$64.6k by July 31. Range-bound portion clearly failed; evidence documents the specific breaches. No outcome value assigned; scoring deferred.
Sources
Mayday
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
First clause met: from ~$59k on 2024-05-02, BTC rallied back above $60,000. But the range top was breached — BTC surged to a 60-day peak of $71,947 on May 21–22, 2024 (above the $70k ceiling) on Ethereum-ETF-approval speculation, then fell ~8% to ~$66,411 by May 23.
Range floor breached badly: in early July 2024 BTC plunged well below $60,000, touching $53,485 on July 5, 2024 (first sub-$55k trade since Feb 27), driven by German-government BTC liquidation and Mt. Gox repayment fears — over $170B wiped off crypto in 24h.
By month-end BTC had recovered back into the low-$60ks, closing July 2024 at $64,619 on July 31 (+~3% on the month).
Corrections
- tags: Pure crypto price bet: dictionary requires crypto (primary) + markets (secondary).
Effect on the score
+0.84- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin rallies above $60,000 then trades range-bound betwe…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources