Full record
25% righteconomyThe Fed and US Treasury will inject a major new wave of fiat liquidity in summer 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
25% righteconomy“Summer will usher in a renewed gusher of fiat liquidity due to the policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Treasury.”
The Fed and US Treasury will inject a major new wave of fiat liquidity in summer 2024
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-30
US dollar liquidity (via Fed measures and/or Treasury TGA drawdown / net bill issuance) expands materially during summer (June–Sept) 2024.
Deadline passed; data is available and unambiguous on the facts, so status=resolved. The FACTS cut mostly AGAINST the claim: the dominant summer-2024 dynamic was TGA rebuild + reserve decline (~-$350B), i.e. draining, not a material expansion of USD liquidity. The genuinely liquidity-additive elements were the ON RRP drawdown (~-$200B, releasing money-fund cash into markets) and the slower QT pace — these are why the interpretation is nuanced. Both sides logged for the scoring stage; no outcome value assigned.
Sources
Heatwave
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Contrary to a 'major new wave of fiat liquidity,' system liquidity CONTRACTED over summer 2024. Per the NY Fed, from early July to mid-September 2024 the Treasury rebuilt the TGA to ~$800B via a rapid increase in net bill issuance, ON RRP fell from ~$200B to de minimis, and bank RESERVES FELL by ~$350B. Net reserve balances declined across the June–Sept window.
Partial offsetting factor (the pro-Hayes side): the Fed slowed QT effective June 1, 2024 (Treasury runoff cap cut $60B→$25B/month), reducing the pace of balance-sheet drain during the summer.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.12- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Fed and US Treasury will inject a major new wave of fia…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources