Prediction record
50% outcomeeconomyAfter May 1 2024 the Fed will slow its QT pace and the Treasury will act to boost asset prices
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomeeconomy“After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices.”
After May 1 2024 the Fed will slow its QT pace and the Treasury will act to boost asset prices
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-06-30
After 2024-05-01 the Fed reduces its QT pace AND the Treasury draws down the TGA / increases bill issuance, adding liquidity.
Compound (AND) claim by 2024-06-30. Leg 1 (Fed reduces QT pace) is clearly TRUE and effective June 1, 2024. Leg 2 (Treasury draws down TGA / boosts bill issuance to add liquidity by June 30) is only weakly supported within the window — the end-June TGA target was ~flat at ~$750B and the pronounced bill-issuance / TGA moves came in Q3, outside the deadline. Both halves logged for the scoring stage to weigh the compound criterion; no outcome value assigned.
Sources
Heatwave
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Fed QT slowdown confirmed: at the May 1, 2024 FOMC the Fed announced that beginning June 1, 2024 it would cut the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $60B to $25B, materially slowing balance-sheet runoff (MBS cap held at $35B).
Treasury financing over Q2 (by the June 30 deadline): Treasury's April 2024 refunding guided to an end-June TGA target of ~$750B (roughly flat, not a major drawdown) and increased coupon auction sizes plus continued weekly 6-week CMB bill issuance. The large TGA rebuild / net bill-issuance surge occurred in Q3 (July onward), after this record's deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
After May 1 2024 the Fed will slow its QT pace and the Trea…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources