Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin and broad crypto prices will slump in the window around the April 2024 halving
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving.”
Bitcoin and broad crypto prices will slump in the window around the April 2024 halving
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.51
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-05-04
Bitcoin and broad crypto prices decline in the window immediately surrounding the April 2024 halving (roughly the two weeks before/after 2024-04-20).
Criterion (decline in the ~two weeks before/after 2024-04-20) is met: BTC fell from high-$60ks/low-$70ks to ~$58.5k by May 1, and broad crypto declined alongside. Evidence is specific to the halving window; no assignment of outcome value here.
Sources
Heatwave
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
In the window immediately surrounding the April 20, 2024 halving, BTC declined: it was ~$69–70k in early April, sat at ~$63,000 (close $63,821) on halving day April 20, spiked briefly to ~$66k over the next three days, then fell to a local low of $58,568 on May 1, 2024 — a clear net decline across the ~two-weeks-before/after window. This was the first time in Bitcoin's history that price fell (rather than rose) in the period following a halving.
Mid-April 2024 pullback context: BTC repeatedly approached and broke below $60k support in the weeks around the halving; broad crypto tracked BTC lower during the same window.
Corrections
- tags: Claim is entirely about Bitcoin/crypto prices around the halving; 'crypto' (a cryptocurrency's price/level) is the correct primary, 'markets' is reserved for equities/indices/FX.
Effect on the score
+1.51- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin and broad crypto prices will slump in the window ar…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources