Full record
HitmarketsCrypto and stocks will rise on net through the end of 2024 as fiat money supply expands
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“which will underpin the general rise of crypto and stonks until the end of the year.”
Crypto and stocks will rise on net through the end of 2024 as fiat money supply expands
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Crypto (BTC) and US equities (S&P 500) are net higher at end-2024 than on 2024-04-08.
Both legs of the criterion satisfied: BTC and the S&P 500 each closed 2024 higher than their 2024-04-08 levels (BTC ~+28%, S&P ~+13%). Directly supports the prediction. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Heatwave
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
- tags: Stated subject is explicitly 'crypto and stonks' — an equity/index leg (markets) and a crypto leg (crypto). Add 'crypto' so the record feeds the per-tag crypto score.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Crypto and stocks will rise on net through the end of 2024…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources