Full record
HitmarketsThe crypto bull market will continue and prices will trend net higher over the following year
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the bull market will continue and prices will get sillier on the upside.”
The crypto bull market will continue and prices will trend net higher over the following year
- Made on
- 2024-04-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-23
Crypto (BTC and broad market) trends net higher over the ~12 months following 2024-04-23 (no reversal into a sustained bear market).
Criterion (net higher over ~12 months, no reversal into a sustained bear market) is met: BTC ended the window materially higher than it started and set new all-time highs in between. Intervening drawdowns (July 2024, Aug 5 2024 crash, early-2025 tariff selloff to ~$75k) did not constitute a sustained bear. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Left Curve
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Over the 12 months following 2024-04-23, BTC trended net higher: it was roughly $64–66k on 2024-04-23, reached a new all-time high above $100k (~$108k) in December 2024/January 2025, then retraced to the mid-$80k–low-$90k area by late April 2025. April 2025 average close was ~$86,448 (up 14.1% on the month), well above the April 2024 starting level.
The 2025 BTC/USD range was $76,300 (low) to $125,199 (high), with the market making fresh highs after April 2024 — consistent with a continuing bull market and no reversal into a sustained bear over the 12-month window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The crypto bull market will continue and prices will trend…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources