Full record
HitmarketsRisky asset markets will experience extreme weakness in April 2024
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“April will experience extreme weakness in risky asset markets.”
Risky asset markets will experience extreme weakness in April 2024
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-30
Risky asset markets (crypto and equities) decline materially during April 2024.
Both risky-asset classes named in the criterion (crypto and equities) declined materially during April 2024 — BTC ~-15%, S&P 500 ~-4.1%. Supports the prediction. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Heatwave
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin declined materially in April 2024: it opened the month near ~$71k and closed April 30, 2024 at ~$60,637, down ~15% for the month.
US equities also fell: the S&P 500 declined ~4.1% in April 2024, its worst month in six months, on renewed inflation and geopolitical concerns after five straight up months.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Risky asset markets will experience extreme weakness in Apr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources