Prediction record
HitmarketsRisky asset markets will experience extreme weakness in April 2024
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“April will experience extreme weakness in risky asset markets.”
Risky asset markets will experience extreme weakness in April 2024
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-30
Risky asset markets (crypto and equities) decline materially during April 2024.
Both risky-asset classes named in the criterion (crypto and equities) declined materially during April 2024 — BTC ~-15%, S&P 500 ~-4.1%. Supports the prediction. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Heatwave
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin declined materially in April 2024: it opened the month near ~$71k and closed April 30, 2024 at ~$60,637, down ~15% for the month.
US equities also fell: the S&P 500 declined ~4.1% in April 2024, its worst month in six months, on renewed inflation and geopolitical concerns after five straight up months.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Risky asset markets will experience extreme weakness in Apr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources