Full record
HitmarketsStocks with crypto-adjacent business lines will rise during the 2024 crypto bull market
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“As the crypto bull market advances, stocks with any tangential crypto business lines will pump.”
Stocks with crypto-adjacent business lines will rise during the 2024 crypto bull market
- Made on
- 2024-03-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-08
Publicly traded stocks with crypto-adjacent business lines rise materially (e.g., outperform the broad market) during the 2024 crypto bull market.
Resolved in favor on the flagship names (MSTR, COIN) which clearly outperformed the S&P 500 across the 2024 bull market and into the Mar-8-2025 window. Dispersion caveat for the later scoring stage: pure-play miners (MARA, RIOT) were mixed — some posted only modest or negative YTD returns at points in 2024 — so 'crypto-adjacent stocks' as a whole is not uniformly a blowout, though the sector's headline constituents did rise materially and outperform. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Dust On Crust Part Deux
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
During the 2024 crypto bull market, flagship crypto-adjacent equities materially outperformed the broad market. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, rose ~350%+ in calendar 2024; Coinbase (COIN) returned roughly +48% in 2024 and had a trailing-12-month return near +164% by late October 2024. By comparison the S&P 500 returned about +23% in 2024. This satisfies the 'outperform the broad market' criterion for the sector's bellwethers.
12-month performance context through mid-2024: COIN +280% and MSTR +270% over the prior year, well ahead of the index — confirming the crypto-adjacent equity complex led the market during the bull run.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Stocks with crypto-adjacent business lines will rise during…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources