Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is not renewed at its March 12, 2024 expiration.
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I believe Yellen, to project an air of confidence in the strength of the American banking system, will not renew the BTFP.”
The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is not renewed at its March 12, 2024 expiration.
- Made on
- 2024-01-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-11
The BTFP is not renewed/extended for new lending at its 2024-03-12 expiration.
Criterion (BTFP not renewed/extended for NEW lending at its expiration) was SATISFIED. Note the exact expiration for new lending was 2024-03-11 (one day earlier than the claim's stated 'March 12, 2024'); the program was launched March 12, 2023 and stopped new loans March 11, 2024. The substantive prediction — no renewal for new lending — held. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Signposts
Crypto Trader Digest (Substack) ·
Outcome evidence
Federal Reserve announced in January 2024 that the Bank Term Funding Program would cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11, 2024, and it was not renewed/extended for new lending. Existing loans continue to their up-to-one-year maturity but no NEW lending after the expiration.
Wikipedia (Bank Term Funding Program), citing Fed: 'In January 2024, the Federal Reserve said it would let the program expire on March 11, as scheduled. The program was not renewed.' It ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024.
Bloomberg, March 11, 2024: 'End of Fed Tool That Buoyed US Banks Puts Reserves in Spotlight' — confirms the BTFP ended (stopped new loans) at its expiration and was not renewed.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Replace the paraphrase with the exact own-voice sentence from the source (own channel → stays fetched_primary).
- horizon deadline: BTFP ceased new lending 2024-03-11 (launched 2024-03-12, 2023); minor precision fix, no outcome change.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is not renewed a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources