Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Fed allows the BTFP to expire on its scheduled date without renewal, requiring banks to repay roughly $200 billion.
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I believe the BTFP will not be renewed because neither Yellen nor Powell has mentioned it once. Therefore, the natural assumption is that it will expire, and the banks must pay back the almost $200 billion borrowed.”
The Fed allows the BTFP to expire on its scheduled date without renewal, requiring banks to repay roughly $200 billion.
- Made on
- 2024-01-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-11
The Federal Reserve lets the BTFP expire on its scheduled date (2024-03-11) without renewal or a successor facility.
Criterion fully addressed: the Fed let the BTFP expire on its scheduled date (2024-03-11) with no renewal and no successor facility. Outstanding loans (peak ~$160B–$168B in early 2024, close to the record's ~$200B framing) subsequently matured and were repaid. The 'requiring banks to repay roughly $200 billion' figure is approximate — peak outstanding was somewhat under $200B.
Sources
Yellen or Talkin'?
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Federal Reserve press release (Jan 24, 2024) announcing the BTFP would cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11, 2024 — no successor facility announced; existing loans run to their up-to-one-year maturities and banks repay.
Federal Reserve BTFP program page and Wikipedia confirm the program stopped extending new loans on March 11, 2024 as scheduled, with no renewal or replacement facility created.
Fed periodic report (Apr 2025) shows total outstanding BTFP advances wound down to $0 as banks repaid — consistent with expiry-and-repayment, no successor.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Fed allows the BTFP to expire on its scheduled date wit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources