Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin and the total crypto market cap will be at or above their all-time highs by 2024-12-31
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“2024 will be a choppy year with regards to price action, but I still expect by year-end, we will be at or above an all-time high in the market cap of Bitcoin and the entire crypto complex.”
Bitcoin and the total crypto market cap will be at or above their all-time highs by 2024-12-31
- Made on
- 2024-01-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-14
Both Bitcoin's price and total crypto market cap reach or exceed their prior all-time highs at some point on or before 2024-12-31
Both required conditions met on or before 2024-12-31: BTC exceeded its prior ATH in March 2024 and total crypto market cap exceeded its prior ATH by mid-December 2024. Joint condition first satisfied ~Dec 14, 2024 (BTC's condition was already met months earlier). Criterion clearly met.
Sources
ETF Wif Hat
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin exceeded its prior Nov-2021 ATH (~$69,000) on ~March 5, 2024 and reached ~$73,600 on March 13, 2024; later hit ~$108,135 on Dec 17, 2024.
Total crypto market cap made a new all-time high of ~$3.73T on Dec 14, 2024 (and ~$3.91T by Dec 17), exceeding the prior ~$3T ATH from November 2021.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin and the total crypto market cap will be at or above…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources