Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin prints a local price bottom in the $30,000–$35,000 range before the BTFP renewal decision on 2024-03-12.
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I believe Bitcoin will dip before the BTFP renewal decision on March 12th. I didn't expect it to happen so soon, but I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000.”
Bitcoin prints a local price bottom in the $30,000–$35,000 range before the BTFP renewal decision on 2024-03-12.
- Made on
- 2024-01-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-12
Bitcoin's spot price prints a local low within the $30,000–$35,000 band at some point before 2024-03-12.
The predicted $30,000–$35,000 local-bottom band was NOT touched. The actual pre-March-12 local low was ~$38,500 (Jan 23, 2024), roughly $3,500–$8,500 above the top of the predicted band. Window has closed and the outcome is fully determinable. Outcome value assignment left to scoring stage. Verify stage should corroborate the exact intraday low against an exchange/index source (e.g. CoinGecko/exchange OHLC).
Sources
Yellen or Talkin'?
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
After the Jan 11, 2024 spot-ETF launch, Bitcoin sold off and printed its local low around ~$38,500 on Jan 23, 2024 (spot ETFs fell ~15% over their first nine trading days). Price then recovered and never traded down into the $30,000–$35,000 band at any point before the March 12, 2024 BTFP renewal decision.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin prints a local price bottom in the $30,000–$35,000…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources