Full record
HiteconomyThere will be no US recession in the 2024 election year
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I do not foresee a recession in the 2024 election year.”
There will be no US recession in the 2024 election year
- Made on
- 2023-12-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.6
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
The US does not enter a recession (NBER designation / two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters) during calendar 2024
Both prongs of the written criterion (no NBER designation AND no two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters) are satisfied. Criterion clearly met; outcome value assignment left to scoring stage.
Sources
Expression
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
BEA: real GDP rose every quarter of 2024 — Q1 +1.3% (2nd est.), Q2 +3.0%, Q3 +3.1%, Q4 +2.4% (annualized), full-year 2024 +2.8%. No two consecutive negative quarters occurred.
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has announced no business-cycle peak since the expansion began in April 2020; no US recession was designated for 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.6- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
There will be no US recession in the 2024 election year- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources