Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsChina will engage in more aggressive sabre-rattling over Taiwan following the January 2024 election of a pro-independence Taiwanese president
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“I bet we start seeing more aggressive sabre rattling out of China regarding the Taiwan situation, especially if the Taiwanese elect a pro-independence presidential candidate in January 2024.”
China will engage in more aggressive sabre-rattling over Taiwan following the January 2024 election of a pro-independence Taiwanese president
- Made on
- 2023-10-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-05-24
China materially escalates hostile rhetoric/military signaling over Taiwan in the months following the Jan 2024 election
Criterion clearly met within the Jan 1–Jun 30 2024 window. China materially escalated on multiple axes: the large-scale Joint Sword-2024A encirclement drill (May 23-24) explicitly punishing Lai's inauguration; sustained Coast Guard patrols and a boarding near Kinmen (Feb 2024); and diplomatic/rhetorical coercion (Nauru derecognition, unilateral aviation-route changes, MSS warnings). Sources are primary/authoritative. resolved_on set to completion of the definitive military escalation (Joint Sword-2024A, May 24 2024).
Sources
The Periphery
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Following Lai Ching-te's May 20, 2024 inauguration, the PLA launched 'Joint Sword-2024A' on May 23-24, 2024, explicitly framed as 'punishment' for Lai's inauguration speech — 111 aircraft and 46 naval vessels around Taiwan, 82 aircraft crossing the median line; largest PLA exercise near Taiwan since April 2023.
After the Jan 13, 2024 election of Lai (labeled a 'separatist' by Beijing), China ratcheted up pressure: Nauru derecognized Taipei two days post-election; Jan 30 unilateral alteration of civil aviation routes M503/W122/W123 near the median line; a rare Ministry of State Security 'anti-separatist' statement.
After the Feb 14, 2024 Kinmen incident, Beijing rejected Taiwan's restricted-waters designation and launched 'regular patrols'; on Feb 19 China Coast Guard officers boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat — a material escalation of grey-zone pressure in the Jan-Jun window.
The PLA framed Joint Sword-2024A as a direct response to Lai's inauguration; the '2024A' designation signaled a recurring series (2024B followed in October) and included first-time significant coast guard activity around Taiwan's outlying islands.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
China will engage in more aggressive sabre-rattling over Ta…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources