Full record
HiteconomyThe US Treasury General Account (TGA) will be exhausted around the middle of 2023
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the TGA will be exhausted sometime in the middle of the year”
The US Treasury General Account (TGA) will be exhausted around the middle of 2023
- Made on
- 2023-02-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-06-01
The US Treasury General Account balance falls to near-zero (effectively exhausted) around mid-2023.
Criterion SATISFIED: the TGA fell to effectively near-zero (~$23–50B vs a $600B target) around early June 2023, i.e. 'around the middle of 2023', within the deadline (2023-07-31). Timing is per the primary-source Daily Treasury Statement data; resolved_on set to the approximate trough (~June 1, 2023).
Sources
Be Present
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
During the 2023 debt-ceiling standoff the Treasury General Account fell to as low as ~$23–50B against a ~$600B target — effectively near-exhausted in late May/early June 2023.
Goldman Sachs estimated cash would drop under $30B by June 8–9, with 'even odds that the Treasury exhausts its funds entirely'; Axios reported the balance at ~$68B on May 23, 2023.
After the debt-ceiling deal (early June 2023), the TGA was rapidly rebuilt — rising ~$501B between May 31 and July 28, 2023 — confirming it had bottomed near-empty at the start of that window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US Treasury General Account (TGA) will be exhausted aro…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources