Full record
HiteconomyThe US Treasury market will become dysfunctional at some point in 2023 as a result of Fed tightening
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I believe the US Treasury market will become dysfunctional at some point in 2023 due to the Fed's tightening monetary policies.”
The US Treasury market will become dysfunctional at some point in 2023 as a result of Fed tightening
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-15
US Treasury market experiences a documented episode of severe dysfunction/illiquidity in 2023 (e.g. crisis-level MOVE spike, failed auctions, or emergency Fed intervention in the Treasury market).
Criterion SATISFIED: 2023 saw a documented episode of severe Treasury-market dysfunction/illiquidity — a crisis-level MOVE spike (~200, GFC-level), 2-year-note liquidity worse than March-2020 COVID, and emergency Fed intervention (BTFP). Occurred in mid-March 2023, within the 2023 deadline window.
Sources
PEMDAS
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
During the March 2023 banking crisis the ICE BofA MOVE index of Treasury volatility spiked to nearly 200 — levels not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
NY Fed (Liberty Street Economics): after the SVB (Mar 10) and Signature (Mar 13) failures, Treasury bid-ask spreads widened abruptly and price impact for the 2-year note rose to ~2x its March-2020 (COVID) peak — a documented episode of severe illiquidity.
Fed established the Bank Term Funding Program on March 12, 2023 (valuing pledged Treasuries/agencies at par) — an emergency facility responding directly to Treasury-collateral losses that triggered the bank runs.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US Treasury market will become dysfunctional at some po…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources