Full record
50% righteconomyOnce Treasury-market dysfunction forces its hand in 2023, the Fed will restart monetary expansion and Bitcoin along with other risk assets will spike higher
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
50% righteconomy“I expect the Fed will turn the printer bank on, and then boom shaka-laka — Bitcoin and all other risk assets will spike higher.”
Once Treasury-market dysfunction forces its hand in 2023, the Fed will restart monetary expansion and Bitcoin along with other risk assets will spike higher
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.28
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Given Treasury-market dysfunction in 2023, the Fed reverses tightening / expands its balance sheet and Bitcoin plus other risk assets rally materially.
COMPOUND / SPLIT outcome — both sides documented. Mechanism part FAILED: the Fed did not 'restart monetary expansion' or reverse tightening in 2023 — it kept hiking (to 5.25–5.50%) and kept QT; the March-2023 balance-sheet bump was a transient emergency backstop, not renewed printing. Consequence part HELD: BTC and other risk assets did rally materially. Genuinely resolvable (we know what happened) — flagged as split so the later outcome/scoring stage can apply partial credit; no o assigned here.
Sources
PEMDAS
Substack ·
Evidence of what happened
Fed did NOT reverse tightening in 2023: it continued raising the policy rate to 5.25–5.50% by July 2023 (highest in 22 years) and continued quantitative tightening (balance-sheet roll-off) through year-end.
The only balance-sheet expansion was a temporary emergency-liquidity spike in March 2023 (BTFP loans ~$64B by Mar 29 plus a surge in discount-window/bridge lending, ~$300B+ total at peak) that unwound within months — not a restart of QE/monetary expansion.
Risk assets rallied materially: Bitcoin rose from ~$20k to ~$30k during the March-2023 banking stress and ended 2023 up ~157% (~$42–44k high on Dec 5, 2023); US equities also rose strongly over 2023.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The condition 'US Treasury market becomes dysfunctional in 2023' objectively occurred (March-2023 crisis — MOVE ~200, BTFP), as resolved in arthur-hayes-202212-treasury-market-dysfunction-2023. Per the conditionals rule the record is scored on Y, so condition_met must be true rather than null.
Effect on the score
+3.28- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Once Treasury-market dysfunction forces its hand in 2023, t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources