Prediction record
50% outcomeeconomyOnce Treasury-market dysfunction forces its hand in 2023, the Fed will restart monetary expansion and Bitcoin along with other risk assets will spike higher
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomeeconomy“I expect the Fed will turn the printer bank on, and then boom shaka-laka — Bitcoin and all other risk assets will spike higher.”
Once Treasury-market dysfunction forces its hand in 2023, the Fed will restart monetary expansion and Bitcoin along with other risk assets will spike higher
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.28
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Given Treasury-market dysfunction in 2023, the Fed reverses tightening / expands its balance sheet and Bitcoin plus other risk assets rally materially.
COMPOUND / SPLIT outcome — both sides documented. Mechanism part FAILED: the Fed did not 'restart monetary expansion' or reverse tightening in 2023 — it kept hiking (to 5.25–5.50%) and kept QT; the March-2023 balance-sheet bump was a transient emergency backstop, not renewed printing. Consequence part HELD: BTC and other risk assets did rally materially. Genuinely resolvable (we know what happened) — flagged as split so the later outcome/scoring stage can apply partial credit; no o assigned here.
Sources
PEMDAS
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Fed did NOT reverse tightening in 2023: it continued raising the policy rate to 5.25–5.50% by July 2023 (highest in 22 years) and continued quantitative tightening (balance-sheet roll-off) through year-end.
The only balance-sheet expansion was a temporary emergency-liquidity spike in March 2023 (BTFP loans ~$64B by Mar 29 plus a surge in discount-window/bridge lending, ~$300B+ total at peak) that unwound within months — not a restart of QE/monetary expansion.
Risk assets rallied materially: Bitcoin rose from ~$20k to ~$30k during the March-2023 banking stress and ended 2023 up ~157% (~$42–44k high on Dec 5, 2023); US equities also rose strongly over 2023.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The condition 'US Treasury market becomes dysfunctional in 2023' objectively occurred (March-2023 crisis — MOVE ~200, BTFP), as resolved in arthur-hayes-202212-treasury-market-dysfunction-2023. Per the conditionals rule the record is scored on Y, so condition_met must be true rather than null.
Score contribution
+3.28- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.28
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Once Treasury-market dysfunction forces its hand in 2023, t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources