Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin's cycle low was set during the FTX/Alameda crash (Nov 2022) and BTC will not trade below that level again during the current crypto market cycle
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“we likely already hit the lows of this cycle during the recent FTX / Alameda catastrophe”
Bitcoin's cycle low was set during the FTX/Alameda crash (Nov 2022) and BTC will not trade below that level again during the current crypto market cycle
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin does not trade below its FTX-crash low (~$15,500, Nov 2022) at any point through the current cycle window.
Criterion — 'BTC does not trade below its ~$15,500 FTX-crash low through the cycle window' — is SATISFIED. Post-FTX lows in chronological order (Jan-2023 ~$16.5k, Jan-2024 ~$39.5k, late-2025 ~$80k) are all above the Nov-2022 bottom. Full deadline window (through 2025-12-31) has now elapsed, so the 'does-not-happen' condition is fully determinable. resolved_on set to window close. No assignment of outcome value o here.
Sources
PEMDAS
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin bottomed at ~$15,480 on Nov 22, 2022 (its lowest since Nov 2020) during the FTX/Alameda collapse — this was the cycle low.
Bitcoin's 2023 intraday/closing low (~$16,500, early January 2023) held above the FTX low; BTC then rallied ~157% over 2023 to ~$42–44k. It never revisited sub-$16k.
2024 low ~$39,507 (Jan 22, 2024); 2025 saw an all-time high of ~$126,198 (Oct 2025) with a subsequent retracement only to ~$80,000 — all far above the ~$15,500 FTX low. Through the deadline (2025-12-31) BTC never traded below the FTX-crash low.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's cycle low was set during the FTX/Alameda crash (N…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources