Full record
HitcryptoEther does not fall below the $800-$1,000 range (its Terra/3AC-meltdown low is the floor).
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“I believe that ETH won't go lower than the $800 to $1,000 prices it experienced during the TerraUSD / Three Arrows crypto credit meltdown.”
Ether does not fall below the $800-$1,000 range (its Terra/3AC-meltdown low is the floor).
- Made on
- 2022-08-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-16
Ether's spot price does not durably trade below the $800-$1,000 zone after 2022-08-16 through the ~36-month window.
Criterion is 'does not durably trade below the $800-$1,000 zone' over the ~36-month window. The two deepest drawdowns were Nov-2022 FTX (~$1,081 intraday; some 2022 low prints ~$880-$900) and Apr-2025 tariffs (~$1,476, intraday near $1,385). ETH briefly nicked the upper edge of the zone in late 2022 but never established a durable trade below it and recovered quickly each time; the low that mattered for 'durable' was ~$1,300-$1,500 in 2025. Treating the criterion's 'durably below' language literally, the floor held. Price data are from secondary aggregators (CoinGecko/CoinLore) plus contemporaneous CNBC reporting; exact intraday extrema vary slightly by exchange/venue but all agree ETH did not sustain a sub-$1,000 regime. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Evidence of what happened
During the Nov 2022 FTX collapse — the deepest post-2022-08-16 drawdown — ETH fell ~8% to about $1,081 (Nov 21, 2022), touching but not durably breaking below the $800-$1,000 zone; it recovered above $1,200 within days.
ETH's full-year 2022 low is variously cited near $880 (intraday) after the Terra/3AC/FTX meltdowns; this brief spike-low into the upper edge of the $800-$1,000 zone was not a durable trade below it.
The next-deepest post-2022 low was the April 2025 tariff selloff: ETH hit ~$1,476 on Apr 9, 2025 (lowest in ~2 years, some intraday prints near $1,385), still above the $800-$1,000 floor.
By the ~36-month deadline (2025-08-16) ETH had rallied back toward its all-time-high area (~$4,600-$4,900 in Aug 2025), far above the claimed floor; over the whole window ETH never durably traded below the $800-$1,000 zone.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Ether does not fall below the $800-$1,000 range (its Terra/…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources