Full record
HitcryptoEthereum outperforms Solana over 2022: ETH ~3x to $10,000 vs Solana ~2x to $200.
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“ETH can go to $10,000 – a roughly 3x return, and Solana to $200 – a roughly 2x return. Would you be happy owning Solana? Surely yes – but you are leaving valuable shekels on the table.”
Ethereum outperforms Solana over 2022: ETH ~3x to $10,000 vs Solana ~2x to $200.
- Made on
- 2022-03-31
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
Ethereum's total return exceeds Solana's over 2022 (2022-03-31 to 2022-12-31).
Criterion (ETH total return exceeds SOL total return over 2022-03-31 to 2022-12-31) was SATISFIED: ETH ~-63.5% vs SOL ~-91.9%, so ETH outperformed SOL. NOTE: this scores ONLY the relative-outperformance criterion as written; the claim_canonical's absolute targets ('ETH ~3x to $10,000', 'SOL ~2x to $200') both FAILED badly — both assets fell sharply. SOL's severe underperformance was largely driven by the Nov 2022 FTX/Alameda collapse (Solana was closely tied to FTX). The directional relative call held; the magnitude/absolute-price components did not. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Five Ducking Digits
BitMEX Blog ·
Evidence of what happened
CoinMarketCap historical snapshot March 31, 2022: ETH $3,281.64, SOL $122.66. Snapshot December 31, 2022: ETH $1,196.77, SOL $9.9610. Over the window ETH returned approximately -63.5% while SOL returned approximately -91.9%. ETH's total return (-63.5%) EXCEEDED (was less negative than) SOL's (-91.9%), so Ethereum outperformed Solana over the period.
CoinMarketCap March 31, 2022 historical snapshot corroborating the starting prices used for the relative-return calculation (ETH $3,281.64; SOL $122.66).
Corrections
- horizon type: The quoted statement states no deadline; the 2022 window is inferred from surrounding context ('as the year progresses and the merge comes and goes') via the this-year rule.
- Prediction timeframe: Cite the phrase that triggers the inference rule, per horizon-recording requirement.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Ethereum outperforms Solana over 2022: ETH ~3x to $10,000 v…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources