Prediction record

Misscrypto

Ethereum trades above $10,000 by the end of 2022.

A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .

BlogPrimary sourcecryptomarkets

Scored record

Misscrypto

When the dust settles at year-end, I believe ETH will be trading north of $10,000.

Ethereum trades above $10,000 by the end of 2022.

Made on
2022-03-31
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+0.46

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2022-12-31

Ethereum's USD price is above $10,000 at 2022-12-31 (year-end).

Criterion (ETH USD price above $10,000 at 2022-12-31) was NOT satisfied — ETH closed at ~$1,196.77. Prediction failed by a wide margin. No outcome value assigned per instructions.

Sources

  • Five Ducking Digits

    BitMEX Blog ·

    Source

  • Five Ducking Digits

    Medium (Crypto Hayes) ·

    Source

  • Post-Merge Ether Will Be a Commodity-Linked Bond, Could Rally to $10K

    CoinDesk ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • CoinMarketCap historical snapshot for December 31, 2022: Ethereum (ETH) price was $1,196.77 — far below the $10,000 threshold. ETH did not trade anywhere near $10,000 at any point in 2022 (2022 high was well under $4,000).

    Evidence

  • Search-confirmed year-end 2022 ETH close cited as ~$1,196-$1,203 (e.g. $1,203.21); U.Today Dec 31 2022 analysis noted ETH trading near $1,199. All sources agree ETH was ~$1,200 at year-end, roughly 88% below the $10,000 target.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+0.46
Confidence
65%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+0.46

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Ethereum trades above $10,000 by the end of 2022.
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 5, 2026
Made on
2022-03-31

How this profile was built

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Evidence firstMethodology