Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve's first rate hike of the cycle occurs between March and June 2022.
A scored prediction by Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the first rate hike will occur between March and June”
The Federal Reserve's first rate hike of the cycle occurs between March and June 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-01-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-16
The FOMC executes its first rate hike of the tightening cycle at a meeting between March and June 2022.
Primary/official source (Federal Reserve press release) confirms the first rate hike of the cycle occurred at the March 15-16, 2022 FOMC meeting, raising the target range to 0.25-0.50%. This falls squarely within the March-June 2022 window and before the 2022-06-30 deadline. No conflicting evidence. Not scoring here.
Sources
Maelstrom
Medium (Crypto Hayes) ·
Evidence of what happened
Official FOMC statement dated March 16, 2022: 'the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent' — a 25 bps hike, the first rate increase of the tightening cycle (first since December 2018).
CNBC (Mar 16, 2022): Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years, +0.25 pp, at the March 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations page documenting the target federal funds rate change history including the March 16, 2022 move to 0.25-0.50%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve's first rate hike of the cycle occurs b…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources